Opening Day Mouthin' Off

With opening day upon us, I thought I'd do a little Mouthin' Off on the baseball season. Yeah, I did the preseason stuff, but it's been a while and it's time for some updating and hole-filling. I've been reading a ton of baseball articles and hearing a lot of baseball talk on XM Home Plate, so these thoughts are mostly reactions to what I've been reading/hearing.

- Rocco Baldelli has to retire (basically) and this is a real shame. To be blessed with this God-given talent and not have a real opportunity to use it has to really suck, especially when you watch guys like Pac-Man Jones and Ricky Williams piss things like this away. Rocco tried, and could just never get healthy. At least now we know he wasn't just a pussy. Of course, FJM had to pick apart some asshole writer who decided to destroy Baldelli for having the audacity to acquire a disease in his pursuit of fulfilling his life-long dream.

- I'm having a hard time understanding the Mariners love. Everywhere you listen, it's "Mariners by default in the West." [ED note: I just saw on chicagosports.com that Mike Downey - an all around moron - picked the M's to win the World Series] Ok, what has changed? Lackey is out for the Angels for a month. We knew Escobar was hurt seriously. We knew the position players were brittle. All of a sudden, everyone loves the team with this 2-5 lineup? Lopez, Ibanez, Beltre, Sexson. Wow. That does look really solid, for a third place team. The rotation...okay. Not bad. I love Bedard, and I believe King Felix is going to bust out. Of course, after that you get a whole lotta shit. Silva overachieved last year, and Washburn and Batista are very overrated on name value (you know it's bad when the stat everyone points to is "wins." Matt Cain had an awful record last year, but he's a stud. Wins don't measure the quality of the hurler...much like the W/L record of a goalie in hockey doesn't determine the actual worth of said goalie). The defense is incredibly overrated b/c Jojihma, Betancourt, Lopez, and Ichiro are so efficient up the middle. The overall defensive rating is skewed, much like an offensive rating that includes only ARod and Pujols in the middle of 6 subpar players. Only in defense those guys can't cover for everyone. The bullpen is really terrible in front of Morrow and Putz...and Morrow has been sent to DOUBLE-A. Not even Triple-A, fucking double-A. He had a solid rookie season last year in the setup role, and now the Mariners have traded George Sherrill to the O's as part of the Bedard deal. I don't get it. On the other hand, the Angels are so deep, they can handle injuries in any position and not blink. They have Lackey and Escobar hurt (as we mentioned). By the way, Escobar wasn't anything more than mediocre to anyone before last season. So now the rotation is Weaver, Garland, Saunders, ESantana, Moseley. There is some serious potential there, and I'll tell you what...I'd much rather go with Saunders, Ervin, and Moseley than the M's back three. Weaver and Garland are killed - absolutely destroyed - by Bedard and King Felix...but the Angels offense is that much better than the M's. I'm still not budging...not to mention that fact that Lackey coming back changes the complexion of the entire staff. Angels by more than 5 games.

- I bet Brian Roberts is boys with Andy McFail. You know why I call him McFail? Name 3 productive major league position players that came through the Cubs' system since McFail took the helms (he was Team President from '94-'06)? You can't name one. Corey Patterson wasn't productive, by the way. Neither was Kevin Orie. Nor was Dave Kelton. Hee Seop Choi? LOL. Good thing we let Mark Grace walk so he didn't hinder the development of Choi, of course, Choi did yield something good, we got Derrek Lee for him straight up (Thank you, Jim Hendry).

- In fairness, I'll tell the good things Andy MacPhail did as Cubs' President...Sammy Sosa (was an also ran in the George Bell trade), Kerry Wood and Mark Prior (no-brainer draft picks whose respective careers were ruined by Dusty Baker); and Carlos Zambrano. Other than that, Jim Hendry did some good and bad work as GM, but at least he tried. McFail did nothing but mess us up for years (other than getting really, REALLY lucky twice with Sammy and Z)...congratulations, O's. You have given carte blanche to a dude that garnered four quality players in 12 years.

- How awful are the Cardinals going to be, and how great is it? I know all the losers from Sticksville are waxing poetic about their offense, pitching, defense, intangibles, or coaching (did I miss one, STL faithful?); but nothing can change the fact that this team is flat-out terrible. I don't think I've ever respected a hitter for his ability more than Albert Pujols in my lifetime, but he needs help. Who is going to provide that? Duncan? Not bad. Ankiel? Please. Glaus? Call Trace Atkins, because he needs a knee brace...and those are the ONLY OPTIONS. Seriously. Have you seen that lineup? I had to laugh when I was listening to The Beat (XM, get it, worship it), the St. Louis beat-writer really said that the Ludwick/Juan Gone combo had a chance to hit 30. I almost crashed into the median. The fill-in host for Steiner actually burst out laughing and had to apologize. What is with you Cardinals idiots? Do we live in the same atmosphere?

(The best part about this? If one is reading now, they are going: What about you Cubs fans? You guys think you are so smart and you haven't won since 1908." Good point, I wish I could have cheered my team better and been nicer in the past 28 seasons. Championship. That's the key, right Cardinal fan? Players don't matter, it's all about the ever-loving support in the crowd; at which you fucks are so overrated.)

- This is my favorite time of year because the games are starting soon, yes, but I also love hearing about spring stats. They really mean a ton. Manny Ramirez didn't do anything in the spring, and he's already en route to an MVP after two games (listening to all the baseball people). I'm also looking forward to the people making the whole "(insert player's name with a huge opening week) is on pace for (insert ridiculous stat for HR or RBI totals)...Sincerely, Stat Dork" joke. That joke is actually more played than the people that the joke is mocking at this point.

- I loved getting to watch Wood close the game yesterday. It was what I'd guess will be a typical save for him this season. Blows gas all inning, ranging from 96-101 MPH, gives up a walk and base hit before inducing a double-play and punching out the last dude with some nasty hooks. He'll give us a few collective heart attacks, but should get the job done.

- The more and more I look at the Central, the less convinced I am that the Reds can give the Brewers a tough run at second place. Their rotation behind Harang is nothing but question marks (I love it when people include Arroyo, like he's such a sure thing), and I could see Dusty ruining Harang. Plus, they are playing Hatteberg instead of Votto at 1B and Patterson in CF. He's already sabotaging the team, as I've written before. Cueto, on the other hand, is being thrown into the fire at age 22. Is anyone else concerned that he's about to have a Mark Prior-like career arc?

- As I just alluded to with my comment about the Brewers being second place, I'm backing off my pre-preseason prediction. I don't think the Brewers win more than 90, and I'm starting to feel high-90s for the Cubs. Opening day optimism? Perhaps, but the Cubs are the much more complete team, especially with Mike Cameron missing 25 games. The Cubs will have played the Brewers six games before Cameron returns. Without Cameron, the Brewers are a terrible defensive team, and with him they are simply subpar. The bullpen, including Gagne and Turnbow as far as I'm concerned, is subpar at best, and I'm starting to think the rotation when healthy is overrated. And it's not healthy. Capuano and Gallardo are hurt, and Sheets is a walking injury. I do like Parra, but overall I don't think this team is built to take the next step.

- I love The Beat, as I mentioned earlier, but I can't get over Charlie Steiner talking about how bad the Giants are gonna be and then say something like, "Are they gonna win 70 games?" or "I'd set the over/under at 70 wins, and I'm not even sure which side to take." Charlie, are you kidding? The Giants team is going to be historically bad. I don't think they can win 60, especially when you consider the rest of their division is the best 1-4 in baseball. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are in for a rough season, needing run support from that offense. The heavy hitters are Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, and Randy Winn. They are starting a dude named Brian Babcock at SS and Dan Ortmeier at first base. I'll go on record now with a 55-107 prediction.

- On the flip-side of the bay, I'm starting to think that the A's could win 70, especially if Rich Harden can stay healthy (uh, wait...nevermind).

- With Nick Johnson healthy and hitting again, along with the upside of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes, I really like the Nationals capabilities to score some runs. It's too bad they are playing in a division with Mets, Phillies, and Braves...and their pitching is a debacle (Odalis Perez is the opening day starter).

- Speaking of the NL East, I'm wondering about the excessive love for the Braves. Peter Gammons and Ken Rosenthal both picked them to win the National League while Jayson Stark has them winning it all. Let me figure this one...John Smoltz is a stud, but eventually a pitcher in his 40s will hit a wall. Look at the Big Unit when he went to the Bronx. It was unexpected. I still like Tim Hudson, but let's face it: His name carries much more weight than his stuff. Tom Glavine can't be effective anymore over the course of an entire season. They are counting on Mike Hampton. In the bullpen, I love Rafeal Soriano, but what if he can't handle closing duties? Plus, they have Will Ohman. They are good, but I think there are six better teams in the NL, with the Brewers and Padres being very close behind. Of course, I guess I'd rather see that pick than the "Mets vs. Red Sox" one. It's good to think a little outside the box. Plus, Peter is a God. So he's cool.

- On obvious picks, if I hear another CC Sabathia or Josh Beckett pick for the Cy Young I'm going to scream. Johan in the NL. We get it, they are good...but those are the favorites. Mix it up, have some fun!

- Just an FYI to the Dontrelle fan club...his ERA is well over 5.00 in the spring and he hasn't topped 84 on the radar. Keeping with the pace of the last three years, by the end of his current contract his ERA will exceed the speed of his fastball.

- I still think the Blue Jays are incredibly overrated, and it's getting worse as the season gets closer because everyone wants to say the Yankees and Red Sox are not head and shoulders above the rest of the division again. Well, they are. On the Jays, I like the starting pitching but do not like the offense at all. Much like I said on Smoltz, Frank Thomas is going to hit a wall one of these seasons, and he's not good enough to be a cleanup hitter on a contender anymore. Vernon Wells is too inconsistent, Eckstein's going to be a colossal bust in the AL East, and on and on. I just don't like this team to win more than 83 games.

- Some of the setup guys might be more exciting to watch than the closers this year...Jonathon Broxton, Carlos Marmol, and Joba should all post minuscule ERAs while punching out their fair share.

- The Phillies back end of the rotation is going to be really bad, but I still think Myers and Hamels will be dominant enough along with that offense to take the East. The Mets have major offensive issues outside Reyes, Beltran, and Wright.

- I'm kind of disappointed the Rangers sent down Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but it makes more sense than a Fields-type demotion. He's a catcher, and if he's not going to work with the pitching staff everyday he should be catching somewhere. Last year they were able to DH him and mix him in at 1B, but this year they have brought in a bunch of DH-types (Milton Bradley and Ben Broussard to name two). If they really feel Gerald Laird is more equipped for right now, they can't punt the season for the future yet. Now, if they are 15 games out in June, you gotta bring Salty up and start playing him into the franchise.

- The Tigers starters better have a 7-run lead when they leave the game or stay in and finish it, because that bullpen is going to blow. It looks like Jason Grilli is their best setup man for Todd Jones. Gross.

- Matt Murton is in Triple-A, and fantasy dudes across the country that don't watch the games are crying about how much of a stud power hitter he could be if he just had a chance. Why? Because he has always carried a high OBP. I love stats, but you can't win solely on stats. He's a terrible defensive player and baserunner. It doesn't do any good to get on base if you are going to get caught in a rundown between second and third two batters later...not to mention the amount of times he takes bad angles or misses cut-off men when the ball isn't hit right to him in the OF (of course, if it is hit right to him he's liable to drop it - as he did twice last season).

- Why oh why oh why oh why in God's name did the White Sox send Josh Fields down to Triple-A. Kenny Williams acts like he wants to win now instead of rebuild, but if you want to win now you play the best players...not the ones with the biggest contracts. This is an absolutely ridiculous move, bar none the stupidest of the season so far. 23 bombs in 373 at-bats in an abbreviated rookie season last year for Fields, so yeah, it seems like the right time to stunt his development by sending him back to the minors. Awful, awful move. I don't understand how guys can get paid so much money and botch such simple decisions like this. Here's another thing, if you really want Crede in the lineup, play Fields in the OF. You are going to need to outscore teams anyway, why not have a guy capable of 40 bombs in your everyday lineup? Absurd.

- I'm turning the corner on the Royals as the season nears. They are still probably going to finish last (though they could give the Twins a run for their money), but with Gordon, Guillen (whose not going to be suspended to start the season now), and Butler they have a good middle of the order foundation in place. Hochevar is going to start the season in triple-A, but should be in the rotation by mid-season. I'm not sure how long career minor-leaguer John Bale or ancient Brett Tomko can hold down spots without embarrassing themselves. By all accounts, though, Hillman should be a good manager and the team could approach 70 wins, which is an accomplishment in this division this season with this team.

- I've grown a bit tired of this penchant for older guys to call teams "clubs." Every single personnel guy or former player or broadcaster in an interview will say something like, "we could be a really solid club" or "he's a member of the club." You know who has clubs? Chess players. You play baseball. On a TEAM. This isn't 1950.

Now, just for fun....here's who I think will be a pleasant surprise and a disappointment for each team. Just gut feelings, nothing more or less. Also, this isn't fantasy. Real baseball:

Diamondbacks
Good: Chris Young (will keep getting better until he's a superstar)
Bad: Justin Upton (not yet...)

Braves
Good: Matt Diaz
Bad: Tom Glavine

Orioles
Good: Adam Jones
Bad: Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora

Red Sox
Good: Dice-K
Bad: Mike Lowell

Cubs
Good: Derrek Lee's power
Bad: Ryan Theriot

White Sox
Good: John Danks
Bad: Joe Crede

Reds
Good: Edwin Encarnacion
Bad: Corey Patterson, Scott Hatteberg, Alex Gonzalez (yes, I'm bitter at Dusty for blocking good prospects)

Indians
Good: Franklin Gutierrez
Bad: Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia (just a little too much fawning over them for one spectacular season together)

Rockies
Good: Jayson Nix (I can't think of a better position to throw a rookie into on offense or defense. He should thrive)
Bad: Ubaldo Jimenez

Tigers
Good: Verlander's about to become Johan II
Bad: Edgar Renteria

Marlins
Good: Ricky Nolasco
Bad: Josh Willingham

Astros
Good: Miguel Tejada
Bad: Michael Bourn, Jose Valverde

Royals
Good: Alex Gordon
Bad: Mark Teahen

Angels
Good: Howie Kendrick
Bad: Casey Kotchman

Dodgers
Good: Andre Ethier
Bad: Juan Pierre

Brewers
Good: Manny Parra
Bad: JJ Hardy, Bill Hall

Twins
Good: Delmon Young
Bad: Justin Morneau

Mets
Good: Ryan Church
Bad: Carlos Delgado

Yankees
Good: Phil Hughes
Bad: Andy Pettitte/Mike Mussina

A's
Good: Travis Buck
Bad: Huston Street

Phillies
Good: Brett Myers
Bad: Kyle Kendrick

Pirates
Good: Paul Maholm
Bad: Jack Wilson is awful.

Padres
Good: Adrian Gonzalez (there's more...)
Bad: Kevin Kouzmanoff (no more)

Giants
Good: Lincecum and Cain
Bad: Everyone else

Mariners
Good: Bedard, King Felix
Bad: Silva, Washburn, Batista

Cardinals
Good: Troy Glaus
Bad: Rick Ankiel

Rays
Good: Matt Garza
Bad: Scott Kazmir

Rangers
Good: Josh Hamilton
Bad: Milton Bradley

Blue Jays
Good: Dustin McGowan
Bad: David Suck-stein

Nationals
Good: Lastings Milledge
Bad: Paul LoDuca

That should be long enough. Enjoy the Nats/Braves tonight and the real Opening Day tomorrow. Go Cubbies!